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Wednesday, July 22, 2009

Who are these morons?

Related Link » Saving Healthcare

“This short spot contains some humorous moments from Monday's healthcare forum with Russ Carnahan. It concludes with Jackson--asking: ‘If it's so good why doesn't Congress have to be on it’?”

h/t Secular Apostate
Another clueless Congressman touts $6 Billion savings out of an expenditure estimated in the neighborhood of $1.5 Trillion! This bit of noise amounts to 6/1500 or 0.4%. And, of course, it implies that Congressional wizards are capable of projecting healthcare costs, or any other government costs for that matter, to much better than 1% accuracy over the course of a decade!

Since one decade's total-expenditure estimates for health care reform have been quoted within $½ Trillion of $1.5 Trillion, the real "accuracy" of such guesstimates is around 50% (most likely much worse, given their political incentive to under-predict costs). The discrepancy between this real "accuracy" and the implicit accuracy of the ridiculous claim is two orders of magnitude, which is like claiming a penny saved in a transaction that is quoted to the nearest dollar. This would have made the $6 Billion-saving claim ridiculous even if it had been made by a high-school dropout.

Post #859 Who are these morons?

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